A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
